Gorki Luis Aguila Carrasco, lead singer of Porno Para Ricardo (official site here), has been arrested while at his house. The popular punk band is open about its critique of the state. Apparently the police didn't even have a warrant. His father and fellow band members are concerned-- not just for lack of due process, but because Gorki has some health problems (inflamed lungs and difficulty breathing).

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Cristina Kirchner (President of Argentina) arrived in Asunción on Thursday evening, joining an array of Latin American presidents who will be on hand to witness the historic transition. Bolivia's Evo Morales (fresh off an electoral victory) and Ecuador's Rafael Correa got there earlier. News that Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega would come was greeted with a strong repudiation from the future director of the Ministry of Women due to allegations from his stepdaughter that he raped her repeatedly for two decades. He's made a last-minute decision to not attend. Tabaré Vázquez, President of Uruguay, had a much warmer reception in Asunción--he received the keys to the city. (Uruguayan electoral observers played a key role in assuring some kind of regulatory normalcy on election day.) Felipe, Prince of Asturias (heir to the Spanish throne) is also in town, as is Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou met with Lugo earlier Thursday at Mburuvichá Róga (the "house of the chief"), Paraguay's Presidential Palace. Colombia, Cuba, and Guatemala have apparently sent vice presidents. Hugo Chavez is expected on Friday morning.

Joseph Stiglitz will be on hand for Fernando Lugo's inauguration later this month says Global Voices Online. If he does get his wish, he will have the opportunity to shape new economic strategy in Paraguay, tackling questions of poverty and underdevelopment: foreign ownership and control of its agriculture (much of it through underhanded means), unequal land distribution (to an extent shocking even for Latin America), poor management of dynamic energy resources, financial policies that encourage capital outflow rather than repatriation of Paraguay-produced profits.

The new "Chicago Boys"? Chile's economic restructuring in the 1970s was steered by advisers trained at the University of Chicago, who implemented then-novel neoliberal changes to jumpstart the economy. Stiglitz, who holds a Nobel prize in economics, has extensive experience crafting and analyzing the results of the new economic model and his recent work (Globalization and its Discontents, Making Globalization Work, The Three Trillion Dollar War) offers a nuanced account and assessment of its successes and failures. He ultimately falls on the side of critique.

On August 15, Fernando Lugo will begin his term as President of the Republic of Paraguay. It will be the first time in 62 years that the ANR (the Colorados) are not in power and it represents an amazing moment in that country because hopes and expectations are high for the former bishop. Nevertheless, he will face great economic and political challenges emanating from internal and external forces.

1) Significant natural resources from ITAIPU & YACYRETA. These are two gargantuan hydroelectric plants (dams) on Paraguay's water borders with Brazil and Argentina (respectively). Given that energy prices are up globally, Paraguay should have seen a significant increase in revenues from these binational partnerships. This has yet to materialize as a result of a number of issues: corruption and graft (elite politicians finance their lifestyles through the agencies charged with distributing the largesse from the dams); Yacyreta's supposed ongoing technical problems; and unequal access to its share of the energy produced by Itaipu (wherein it has the requirement to sell any excess energy only to Brazil at below-market prices a tenth of what Brazil can then resell it as). Lugo has capitalized on popular resentment in Paraguay and has said that he will make renegotiating these two treaties a top priority.

It remains to be seen what he could possibly use as a bargaining chip to induce any flexibility on the part of Brazil or Argentina. Perhaps the Brazilian anthropologist I put this question to a few months ago is right: Brazil's President Lula will, for the sake of supporting the leftish government in Paraguay, concede a bit on the price that it pays Paraguay for unused energy, but will argue that, for the sake of political and economic stability within Brazil (who gets 20-25% of its annual energy from Itaipu), it cannot afford to pay market price.

2) Relations with Brazil & Argentina and Paraguay's place in Latin America, as well as the "leftward" turn to the continent. Lugo, even in the few months following his election, has internationalized Paraguayan diplomacy to an extent not seen in decades. He has traveled widely in the continent. But the question of where he falls in the two South American axes will be one to resolve in order to move forward: whether Paraguay will accede to the Brazil-Chile-Argentina left or whether it will lean towards Venezuela-Bolivia-Ecuador.

While Venezuela's Chavez may have popular appeal chiefly stemming from his anti-US rhetoric and the distribution of US-based petrol profits and despite Paraguayan anxieties over Brazilian incursions (a widespread popular fear is that Brazil will invade, militarily, when it can no longer get what it wants via informal invasions and imperialist expropriations-- namely water, territory for soy, and hardwoods), my intuition is that based on Lugo's personality and Paraguay's expediencies, Paraguay will continue its close relationship to Brazil.

While the posture of Brazil and Argentina towards Paraguay might at best be characterized as general, forgetful neglect, Paraguay is possibly more key to Brazil's internal functioning economy (in addition to its energy contribution, a great deal of cheap merchandise enters the Brazilian market via the Tri-Border area at Paraguay's Ciudad del Este) while Argentina benefits from cheap Paraguayan labor, chiefly in Buenos Aires as Paraguayans work to send remittances home.

3) Recrafting Paraguayan Political Culture. The ANR is a powerful opposition (because of its infrastructure, which largely remains intact) that is nevertheless still re-consolidating itself after the resounding indictment of April 20. Lugo will also need to tread carefully with the Liberal party (his vice-president Federico Franco is a member and it was in part their political machine that helped Lugo to victory). Though they have been in the opposition for decades, even facing organized violence and oppression by Stroessner's ANR (where even playing their theme song became an act of resistance), in practice they differ little from the ANR in those provinces where they have ruled: corruption and graft. There will be Liberales who are looking for the spoils of the government coffers.

How will Lugo avoid the corruption scandals that have beset other Latin American countries?