Christine Folch

My predictions: the GOP will do some soul-searching on how to reach out to Latinos since even the steady support they've had in the Cuban-American electorate is declining every election (Fox News own exit polls in Florida found that 50% of Cuban-American voters supported Romney and 47% supported Obama).

They'll first look to find a way to use immigration reform as a quick solution to the situation. And then they'll discover that there's actually a deeper problem of orientation and how Latinos and Latin-America are talked about. Words like "illegal aliens," "invasion," "pandering," "good vs bad Latinos" are not helpful terms and, in fact, alienate.


The Latino Vote in 2012
by David Frum

Winning quote:

Any idea that the immigration issue - and the immigration issue alone - would enable Republicans to staple a good chunk of the Latino vote to the conservative coalition - without changing anything else - is a dangerous self-deception.

I’ve got egg on my face.  I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.  The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels.  Didn’t happen.  These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay.  And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics. In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks.  In 04, it was 11%.  This year, 10% was Latino.  In ‘04 it was 8%.

Unlike Latinos in western states who are primarily Mexican-American and place a high priority on the issue of immigration, Cuban-American and Puerto Rican voters comprise the bulk of Latino voters in Florida and generally are not as concerned about immigration status issues. While those voters do not necessarily have to deal with the immigration issue personally, the tone of the debate is still seen as a sign of respect to the community.